Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

What’s often misunderstood about Google’s incrementality testing and how Bayesian models use probability to guide better ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

What would Thomas Bayes think? In 1763, he proposed a new approach to calculate probabilities. An international team has now updated his ideas to deliver a quantum Bayes' rule. (Courtesy: Centre for ...

Daniel McNulty began writing for Investopedia in 2012. His work includes articles on financial analysis, asset allocation, and trading strategies. Marguerita is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), ...

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...